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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.